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club-3090/_local-lmcache-tuning/quality-mtp-ab
Alex 6e30a10b29 Local: same-day quality A/B — MTP-off is quality-neutral; CORRECT the contamination claim
Ran the repo's own suite on both arms, same day / same harness, to test the
'possibly contaminated numbers' speculation in club-3090 #710.

CORRECTION — hermesagent-20 is NOT affected by MTP:
  MTP-on  11/20 (55%)   MTP-off 10/20 (50%)
  1 scenario flipped (HA-05, favouring MTP-ON); 9 failed in BOTH arms.
  A 1-scenario delta at n=20 is noise -> the banked 60% is within noise of
  both arms and is probably fine. Posted as a correction on #710.

REINFORCED — MTP-off costs no quality:
  det 57/75 on BOTH arms, identical pack-for-pack (toolcall 10/15,
  instructfollow 13/15, structoutput 13/15, dataextract 15/15,
  reasonmath 6/15). Verified two independent runs: 0/75 byte-identical
  responses, different file hashes.

Both arms score det 57/75 today vs the banked det 64/75 (--full, 2026-06-07
harness) -> that 7-point gap is harness/time drift, not MTP. Cross-time
scores on this suite are not an A/B; the same-day control is what caught it.

Refines the #710 blast radius: the damage scales with PREFIX REUSE, not with
agent-ness. The targeted repro reuses one system prompt 3x (probe 0/6);
hermesagent-20 runs 20 different scenarios so it washes out. Worst real-world
exposure = a long-lived agent session on one stable system prompt.

MTP-off stays: the case rests on TPS (+79%) + the targeted repro, not the packs.
2026-07-15 01:25:45 +02:00
..